If you haven’t booked your Thanksgiving or Christmas flights yet, you might be in for some serious sticker shock. I book a lot of airline tickets every year and I’ve been doing this for decades, so I have a pretty good sense of what flights should cost.
When I purchased tickets months ago for our family’s annual holiday trip to see relatives, I couldn’t believe the prices. Both the cash fares and the number of miles required were roughly double what we paid the year before.
I still booked because when you’re traveling as a family, especially during the holidays, getting the flights and seats you want is important. I wanted to lock down our preferred flights and reserve the bulkhead row while it was still available. But I was also betting that fares would eventually come down. If they did, I could cancel our tickets, rebook at the lower price and get a travel credit for the difference.
Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened, at least not yet. I’ve been monitoring our flights ever since, both with automated fare alerts and by manually searching several times a week. Instead of dropping significantly, the prices have remained stubbornly high. And judging by the latest airfare data, we’re far from alone.
Holiday airfares are at a 10-year high
According to Hopper’s 2026 Holiday Travel Index, this year’s holiday travel season is shaping up to be the most expensive in a decade. The average domestic roundtrip ticket for Thanksgiving is now $402, up 31% from last year, an increase of $95 per ticket. Christmas isn’t much better. Domestic roundtrip airfare is averaging $452, up 23% from last year, or $85 more per ticket. For a family of four, those increases add up quickly.
International travelers are getting hit, too. Hopper says Thanksgiving airfare to Europe is up 28% from last year, while Mexico and Central America are up 32%. For Christmas, fares to Europe are averaging $1,000 roundtrip, up 15%, while Mexico and Central America are averaging $936, up 23%.
The prices are so high that travelers are taking to social media to vent. In the Threads post I’m embedding below, one traveler summed up what plenty of people are probably thinking after searching for holiday flights: “Guess I won’t be going home for Christmas this year 🙃 thanks @delta.” But it’s not just Delta. Travelers are seeing sky-high fares across the airline industry.
View on Threads
Why are flights so expensive this year?
One of the biggest reasons is the huge increase in jet fuel prices. Hopper says months of elevated fuel costs stemming from the conflict in Iran have helped push Thanksgiving and Christmas airfares to their highest levels in 10 years.
CBS News reports that before the war began in late February, jet fuel averaged about $99 per barrel globally, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). It peaked at $209 in April and was $195 a barrel in mid-September.
Fuel isn’t the only factor. Airlines have also pulled back on capacity while demand has remained strong. Travel Weekly reports that the U.S. airline industry has implemented 10 fare increases since mid-March, while August airfares were already up more than 23% year over year.
Some airlines are also trimming flights because certain routes don’t make as much financial sense when fuel is this expensive. Fewer seats combined with strong demand is not a good recipe for travelers hoping prices will suddenly plunge.
If you haven’t booked yet, should you wait?
This is the million-dollar question and there’s no guarantee either way since airline fares are constantly changing. There is some disagreement among the experts about whether travelers could still see lower fares. KAYAK CEO Peer Bueller recently pointed out that fares this year have generally followed the same seasonal pattern as previous years, just at higher prices. Historically, domestic Thanksgiving fares have risen in September before dropping in October, with some of the best prices appearing around five weeks before the holiday.
Hopper is less optimistic and recommends booking before Halloween, warning that fares could climb as the holidays get closer.
My advice: If you know you’re going and your dates aren’t flexible, I wouldn’t gamble too much. This is especially true if you’re traveling with kids and need three, four or five seats together. That’s exactly why I booked our tickets months ago even though I despised the price.
Book your ticket but keep checking the price
This is something I’ve been preaching for years and it’s what I’m doing with our own holiday tickets. If you find flights and a price you can live with, consider locking them in, provided you’re buying a ticket that allows you to cancel or change without a penalty. Then keep checking the fare after you book.
Depending on the airline and the type of ticket you’ve purchased, if the fare drops later you may be able to cancel or change your ticket, rebook the same flight at the lower price and receive the difference as a future travel credit. Just make sure you understand the rules of your ticket before doing anything since Basic Economy and some international fares can be much more restrictive.
I also recommend setting up fare alerts (here’s how) so you don’t have to check constantly. However, I still manually check my important flights because sometimes I notice things before an alert arrives.
Be flexible with your travel dates
I’ve said this forever: The key to finding cheap flights is flexibility. Unfortunately, that’s difficult during the holidays because everyone wants to travel on the same days.
If you can change your dates even slightly, though, the savings can be huge. Just look at the screenshot above. This one-way flight from Fort Lauderdale (FLL) to Los Angeles (LAX) was $654 on Saturday, November 28 and $674 on Sunday, November 29. But fly just one day earlier, on Friday, November 27, and the fare drops to $199. That’s a savings of $455 per person compared to Saturday. For a family of four, that’s $1,820 just by shifting the trip one day.
Hopper says Sunday, November 29, the Sunday after Thanksgiving, is expected to be one of the most expensive travel days of the year. Domestic roundtrip tickets involving a return that day are averaging $604. Move your return to Monday or Tuesday and the average drops to around $350.
That’s roughly $250 per ticket. For a family of four, you’re talking about potentially saving $1,000 just by changing your return date.
The same principle applies to Christmas. If possible, avoid the busiest days just before Christmas and the Sunday after. You can also check flying on the actual holiday. I realize that’s not ideal for many families, but if your schedule allows it, Christmas Day and Thanksgiving Day can sometimes offer lower fares and less crowded airports.
Don’t automatically book a roundtrip
Another trick worth trying is pricing your trip as two separate one-way tickets. You might find that flying one airline outbound and another home is considerably cheaper than purchasing a traditional roundtrip ticket.
KAYAK’s 2026 holiday data found that combining two one-way tickets can save travelers up to 29% domestically and 30% internationally. I do this all the time. Just make sure you’re comparing the total cost, including baggage and seat fees, especially if one of the options is a low-cost carrier.
Check miles and cash
Don’t forget to check your frequent flier miles or credit card points, but don’t assume an award ticket is automatically a good deal. I always compare both. Unfortunately, for our holiday trip this year, the mileage prices were dramatically higher, too, which is another reason I booked early. I wanted to lock down our flights and seats before the better options disappeared.
If an airline wants an outrageous number of miles, I would rather pay cash and save the miles for another trip when I can get more value out of them. But when cash fares are this high, it’s definitely worth checking your points and miles balances.
Remember the 24-hour rule
If you see a fare you like but aren’t completely sure, remember the Department of Transportation’s 24-hour rule. For airline tickets purchased at least seven days before departure, airlines must either allow passengers to cancel within 24 hours for a full refund or allow them to hold the reservation at the quoted fare for 24 hours without payment. Airlines aren’t required to offer both.
Keep in mind that the federal requirement doesn’t apply the same way when booking through an online travel agency or other third party, which is one of the many reasons I usually prefer booking directly with the airline.
Bottom line
I kept thinking the price of our holiday tickets would come down after I booked them months ago. So far, I’ve been wrong. I’m still monitoring them several times a week and I have fare alerts set, so if the price drops enough, I’ll rebook and take the travel credit. But with domestic Thanksgiving airfares averaging 31% more than last year and Christmas fares up 23%, I’m glad I didn’t wait to secure the flights and seats we wanted.
There will undoubtedly be deals on certain routes between now and the holidays, so don’t stop looking. But if you’re traveling on popular dates, have limited flexibility or need multiple seats together, I wouldn’t wait too long hoping prices are suddenly going to fall through the floor.
Book a fare you can live with, make sure you understand the change and cancellation rules and then keep monitoring it. If the price drops, rebook and save the credit for your next trip.
And if it doesn’t, at least you won’t be watching the price go even higher while wondering why you didn’t book when you had the chance.
